Marine Biology @ UKZN

  SARDINE RUN 2009 - FOLLOW MY BLOG AT: http://sardinerun.wordpress.com/

Current studies

PhD title: The aetiology of the sardine run.

Email: 200202089@ukzn.ac.za

tel: 031 260 8617

I'm now writing up the thesis and hope to submit at the end of this year. Copied below are excerpts from the proposal I'm submitting for post-doctoral studies:

 My PhD research involved tracking the phenomenon known as the ‘sardine run,’ which is the annual nearshore movement of massive shoals of sardines into KZN coastal waters. Their arrival provides a valuable source of nutrition for disadvantaged coastal communities and desperately needed revenue from tourism. However, sardine movement is very difficult to predict. One of the outcomes of my research is the development of predictive models of sardine movement, which would enable stakeholders and local communities to better utilize this resource. A twenty year dataset shows that the sardine run has failed to reach the KZN coastline frequently since 2000. Satellite imagery shows that this movement is very closely related to sea temperature. There is a strong possibility that the failure of the recent sardine runs is due to warming of nearshore ocean temperatures. However, the remotely sensed algorithms for sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a (single celled algae upon which sardines feed) have not been subjected to in-situ verification off the east coast of South Africa, so the accuracy of the satellite imagery is questionable. It is not currently possible to determine whether the failure of the sardine run has been due to warming temperatures and / or declining food resources. Hence this post-doctoral fellowship proposal, where satellite image results are tested against in-situ measurements and algorithms are adjusted. This work will significantly improve climate modeling off the east coast of South Africa by extending the availability of remotely sensed time-series products, which will be used to model sardine movement.

Not only would this study contribute immensely to the understanding of the ecology of the region, but it would also help improve analyses of remotely-sensed time series data, which would contribute significantly to the improvement of models for climate change. I would like to become an integral member of the ACEP project and contribute to the scientific understanding of how remotely sensed products can contribute to management of resources in the region, especially in terms of contributing to the development of near real-time products